Toronto Maple Leafs Will Face Tough Sledding No Matter Who Their First-Round Opponent Is

The Toronto Maple Leafs are now squarely at the point of their 2023-24 season, where their foot has to be on the gas just about every night. The Buds’ remaining 12 games – seven at home, and five on the road – feature opponents that either are in a playoff position or in desperate need of one.

For instance, they take on the disappointing New Jersey Devils a whopping three times between Tuesday and April 11. Toronto also takes on the Florida Panthers (twice), Tampa Bay Lightning (twice), Buffalo Sabres, Washington Capitals, Montreal Canadiens and Pittsburgh Penguins between now and April 17th. If the Leafs aren’t careful, they could lose third place in the Atlantic Division.

Now, some may suggest it would be best for Toronto if it did slide into one of the wild-card Stanley Cup playoff berths — and a date with, say, the New York Rangers in Round One. But for this writer, Toronto’s post-season road will be extremely difficult no matter where they finish and who they take on in the opening round.

To wit: which Atlantic opponent do you think the Leafs could steamroll once the real games begin? The Panthers? Dear Hockey Content Enjoyer, have you taken leave of your senses? Florida has already shown stretches of utter dominance, although they’ve also been a roller-coaster of a team this season. Do you still think the Leafs can skate with this deep and focused Panthers team?

Is Toronto’s current team all that different from the team that got knocked around and belted upside the head by Florida last year? Well, sure, there’s always an opportunity for the Buds to prove they can take that next competitive step and atone for past disappointments, but you can’t also count out the possibility the Panthers remain the better team.

That goes double for the Boston Bruins, another team the Toronto Maple Leafs could face in Round One. Boston is hard on the puck, contests ice space quickly and effectively, and has great goaltending. It doesn’t matter who the Bruins plug into the system—they regularly know how to find ways to win. The Leafs could easily be mashed up and set aside like so many recyclables by the Bs.

And that’s a big old “ditto” for the Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes, who are also potential Leafs opponents in Round One. The Rangers have exceptional speed and skill, and their goaltending makes a habit of delivering wins. The Blueshirts have gone 18-4-1 in their past 23 games, and nobody should imagine they’ll be easier to battle than this balanced and fast-moving bunch.

And the Hurricanes just showed how good they really are in handing the Leafs two losses in the past eight days. Toronto had better hope they’re not playing the ‘Canes, because Carolina has won all three games between them this season, and many will be picking Carolina to outlast most teams in the East.

See where we’re going with this? There are no “gimme” teams in Stanley Cup Playoff hockey. Even teams on the fringes of the playoff race can play spoiler in their own way in the remaining games. And, of course, there’s the Lightning, every Leafs fan’s joy to rage against.

Quick question. Do you think the Bolts want to avenge what happened between Tampa and Toronto last season? And yes, Toronto is 2-0-0 against Tampa Bay this year with two more games to play, but more than likely, the Lightning and Leafs aren’t going to face off until the second round, if they even face off at all. Yet they’re out there, looming.

It doesn’t matter when the Leafs get the hardest road, pain and strife are coming their way. If they manage to survive the opening round and continue to advance, their opponents will only get more difficult. There are no breaks anymore in the post-season. It’s all about hanging together and staying healthy, and yes, it’s also about getting a bit lucky. Those are the things that propel teams into the third or fourth round.

Sure, on paper, the Leafs are more likely to string together a couple of playoff series wins over certain opponents. Personally, this writer would pick the Rangers for the Leafs in the first round, as at least the Leafs have shown this season they can beat the Blueshirts (2-1 in games). Toronto’s record this year against Florida is 1-1-0 (with two games still to play); their record against the Bruins is 0-2-2; and their record against Carolina is 0-2-1. It’s not exactly confidence-inspiring stuff.

There’s a reason why the playoffs are so tough to navigate your way through, even a team as talented as the Leafs at full strength actually is. The parity of the NHL has never been greater than it is right now. Imagine what will happen when the NHL expands to 34 teams and introduces a play-in component of the playoffs. Year-to-year, it will only get more difficult from this point on.

If the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be successful, they will have to be at their best as a unit, they’ll need puck luck for themselves, and they’ll need to have their best players be their best players. If any of those things are problems, you can say sayonara to this Leafs team. They’re no different in that regard than any other Cup contender, but that’s still a sobering thought to ponder as the playoff picture unfolds.