The long-shot NBA title contender no one is talking about

The landscape of the NBA can seismically shift at a moment's notice (thanks again, Kevin Durant), but historically there is one reliable metric that can be used to sort through the rubble and separate the contenders from the pretenders.  

Net Rating, which is the difference between a team's Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Rating, has long been one of the most reliable predictors of postseason success. Over the past 20 seasons, no team has won a title with a Net Rating lower than +4.2. 

With all the parity in the league this season, there are only three teams that rise above that statistical threshold: Boston, Philadelphia and...

The Cleveland Cavaliers.

If the Cavs don't move you as a legitimate threat to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy, you aren't alone. Most oddsmakers have Cleveland in the neighborhood of +3000 to win it all, which is good for about the 10th-best odds in the league. This is the case despite the fact the Cavs rank first in Net Rating at +5.6.

So, what gives? 

Lack of experience is a likely factor in Cleveland not being regarded as a true contender, as budding stars Darius Garland and Evan Mobley have yet to experience playoff basketball. Donovan Mitchell has, though, and while he rightfully isn't regarded in the same rarified air as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum or Joel Embiid, it's Mitchell who owns the highest playoff points per game (28.3 PPG) of that group. 

Mitchell's multiple failed opportunities to carry the Utah Jazz deep in the postseason are impossible to ignore, but the pendulum of public opinion may have swung a bit too far on his ability to carry a team.

Regular season performances won't shift that narrative, but it's not for a lack of trying: Mitchell has eclipsed the 40-point mark in three of four games against Boston this season, helping the Cavs to a 3-1 record against the Eastern Conference power.

Despite that, it's understandable why the Cavs might not have many thinking championship outside of Believeland. The league has become increasingly uniform with pace, space and shapes, and the Cavs are an old-school outlier with two non-shooting bigs in Mobley and Jarrett Allen roaming the plains while the offense operates at a snail's pace (last in the NBA). 

The Cavs are essentially the knuckleball pitcher in a league grooved for fastballs. That uniqueness itself isn't enough to run the table, but the statistical history is clear: Cleveland is playing like a contender.