2024 Charles Schwab Challenge best bets, expert picks for Adam Schenk and more

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets & Expert Picks

Fade Taylor Moore

By Spencer Aguiar, Action Network

At what point does Taylor Moore's recent run of 18 consecutive made cuts make you completely ignore poor course history and insufficient statistical data for this track?

I am more willing to bypass his back-to-back missed cuts at the property over the last two years since this recent onslaught of made weekends does demonstrate a much safer golfer than he was leading into those events. However, I am not willing to overlook Moore's statistical profile that doubles down on why he has struggled at Colonial in the past.

Moore ranked 94th for me when running the data over a two-year perspective to fit this week's venue, highlighted by some extremely low-end marks that placed him 93rd in Weighted Strokes Gained: Total, 102nd Strokes Gained in Texas, 95th for Weighted Scoring and 108th for my favorite category of the week, a metric I labeled in my model as "Weighted Approach + Weighted Putting + GIR Percentage."

My favorite route would be to shop around and take Sepp Straka over Taylor Moore if you have that bet available, but I would take an equally strong stance for an option such as Tom Kim at -110 over Moore in a tournament matchup at DraftKings.

Adam Schenk Top 20 +280 (FanDuel)

By Matt Gannon, Action Network

Rarely does a mid-tier golfer finish runner up at a golf course and win the next season. From time to time, an elite golfer will accomplish this feat, and Nick Taylor this year at the WM Phoenix Open is an exception to this as well. Nonetheless, I expect Schenk to play well this week.

While he did not play well and actually lost strokes on approach in each of his last two starts, Valhalla and Quail Hollow were big ballparks that don't favor his game nearly as much as a more positional course like Colonial does.

Before that, he started trending with the irons on courses that fit his game much more. This week, Schenk should be very confident as Colonial suits his game well, and he has the course history after nearly winning here last year.

Lucas Glover Top 10 +550 (bet365)

By Tony Sartori, Action Network

I am a big fan of Lucas Glover’s game. The only thing he doesn’t necessarily handle well is distance, but that problem is nullified at a course like Colonial, which is why he finished eighth here in 2021.

His elite combination of Driving Accuracy (sixth this year on the PGA Tour), Approach play (11th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green) and short game (11th in SG: Around the Green) give him the upside to win this week.

We shouldn’t be too surprised with another top 10 finish here, considering how well Glover has resurrected his game over the past year. He has made the weekend in 21 of his past 24 tournaments dating back to last season, boasting two wins and three other top-10 finishes over that stretch.

Glover has also gained strokes on the field in seven consecutive tournaments, and with that recent eighth-place finish under his belt at Colonial, there are a lot of reasons to like him this week.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Collin Morikawa +1300
• Gannon: Max Homa +2200
• Sartori: Scottie Scheffler +280

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Brian Harman +4000
• Gannon: Si Woo Kim +4000
• Sartori: Justin Rose +6000

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Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Mark Hubbard 90-1
• Gannon: Nicolai Højgaard 100-1
• Sartori: Webb Simpson 150-1

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Taylor Moore 75-1
• Gannon: Collin Morikawa +1300
• Sartori: Jordan Spieth +2200

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Adam Scott 80-1
• Gannon: Maverick McNealy 66-1
• Sartori: Sungjae Im 45-1

Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge

Aguiar: There will be a lot of discussion this week about the impact of Gil Hanse's restoration of Colonial Country Club. Over 20 million dollars were invested in the property to restore it to its original design.

You likely are going to get two separate viewpoints on exactly how much influence that factor is going to have compared to past iterations of this contest since my model seems to believe this is a glorified 'pitch-and-putt' contest that somehow removes high-end birdie-making potential from the equation.

That is a weird answer since you typically attribute a short course to being more straightforward. However, length doesn't necessarily make a venue problematic, something we see here with the track grading as one of the more challenging stops yearly.

How much Hanse's construction deviates from that long-term expectation remains to be seen, but I didn't feel the need to alter past models to account for these changes.

Gannon: Don't take too much of the redesign into consideration based on how you handicap this golf course. Colonial will still play in extremely tight corridors, demand plenty of forced layups and reward precise iron play.

Some of the sight lines off the tee may be altered, so I am weighing course history a tad less than in years past. Knowing the sight lines off the tee around Colonial is a massive advantage that will lead confident drivers of the golf ball to pull the big stick more than the field. I do believe most players will take the safe route and play toward the layups.

This means approach play is even more important, so take a stab at players who are trending with their irons.

Sartori: Colonial Country Club is a par-70, 7,289-yard track designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell. However, the course is going to play a bit different following a renovation by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner this season.

Hanse also renovated Tulsa’s Southern Hills Country Club prior to the 2022 PGA Championship, which is worth analyzing correlated performances considering that Southern Hills was also originally designed by Maxwell.

Most of the guys who finished toward the top of the leaderboard last season did so with their putter, but Scottie Scheffler proved it's possible to flirt with winning with extremely dialed-in iron play, something he is pretty familiar with.